New analysis of parliamentary constituencies in England and Wales has revealed that Labour’s support has been rising for years in big cities but has dropped in the most working class seats. Strongly working class constituencies are no longer the Labour party’s ‘heartlands’ in terms of votes.
New qualitative research also exposes growing hostility and division between Labour voters, and reveals that the growing parts of Labour’s core support are also likely to be the least loyal.
For the Many?, a new Fabian Society report, warns the fragility in Labour’s coalition could cost Labour the next election. The report finds:
· Big city seats are Labour’s new heartlands. Labour won every hub city seat outside of London in 2017, the first time this sort of shut out has ever happened.
· Labour support has fallen in the most working class constituencies. Although these seats are considerably more Labour leaning than average, they are no longer the places where Labour secures its highest share of the vote.
· Labour’s Brexit ‘remain’ surge has been overstated. The most remain leaning seats started to move to Labour well before the referendum, suggesting demographic factors are more crucial than the EU vote itself.
· Labour is now the party of professionals. The seats with the highest proportion of professionals are remarkably now more Labour leaning than the national average.
· There is hostility and tension at the heart of Labour’s core support. In depth interviews with Labour voters reveal a bubbling tension between different types of Labour supporter.
· Labour’s newest champions could be the least loyal. Voters from the ‘new’ part of Labour’s support base are less likely to demonstrate emotional loyalty to the Labour party. Labour’s traditional working class voters have a deep emotional and cultural connection to the Labour party despite often feeling let down.
By spending a day in the life of six Labour voters For the Many? offers an in depth analysis of the complexities and contradictions that threaten Labour’s electoral coalition as well as proposing six ways to strengthen and unite Labour’s base.
Read the report here.
To read the interview with Devon, click here.
To read the interview with George, click here.
To read the interview with Mary, click here.
To read the interview with Michael, click here.
To read the interview with Yasmin, click here.
To read the interview with David, click here.