Another mountain to climb

Today the Fabian Society publishes Another Mountain to Climb: Labour’s electoral challenge in the 2020s by Fabian Society general secretary Andrew Harrop. The paper asks what it will take for Labour to win a future election.

Key points

To win a majority at the next election Labour needs to gain 123 seats, almost twice as many as it required at the 2019 election.

This figure actually under-states the extent to which Labour’s position has deteriorated. To secure the ‘winning post’ marginal seat Labour now needs an electoral swing of 10.3 percentage points, almost three times more than the swing it needed to win the 2019 election.

Labour will need to consider intermediate goals. At the next election it will need to secure 43 seats to deprive the Conservatives of a majority (requiring less than a 4 percentage point swing), or 83 seats to govern in partnership with the SNP (requiring a 7 point swing).

63 per cent of the seats Labour needs to win are in the north, the midlands and Wales; 13 per cent are in Scotland; and 24 per cent are in southern England.

104 of the 123 seats Labour needs to win are in towns not cities (by contrast over half of existing Labour seats are in cities).

Only 30 per cent of the 123 seats Labour needs to win voted ‘remain’ in the EU referendum, compared to around half of Labour’s existing seats.

Political conclusions

Labour must make major progress in this parliament to have a hope of winning power within 10 years. A decisive change in direction is needed.

The party’s top priority must be to win support in towns and small cities in Wales, the north and the midlands. The party must choose its new leadership wisely, by asking who can earn the trust of potential voters in these areas, while not alienating existing supporters in big cities.

There is no electoral future in fighting a rear-guard action on Brexit. Senior Labour politicians need to emotionally and psychologically accept the reality of leaving the EU.

Labour must again debate how it works with other progressive parties because its best hope of returning to power is to govern in partnership. The new leadership should consider saying this in public and committing to build relationships with other parties. More controversially, if Labour really wants to return to power quickly, it may need to consider formal alliances.

Commenting on the findings Andrew Harrop, Fabian Society general secretary and the author of the paper said:

“The detailed numbers show that Thursday’s result was even worse than it appeared on the night. Our analysis shows that Labour will need to make huge strides in this parliament to have a hope of winning power even in 10 years’ time. A decisive change in direction is therefore needed.

“The party’s top priority must be to win support in towns and small cities in Wales, the north and the midlands. There is no other route to winning back power. The party must choose its new leadership wisely, by asking who can earn the trust of potential voters in these areas, while not alienating existing supporters in big cities.

“Only 30 per cent of the 123 seats Labour needs to target voted to remain in the EU so there is no electoral future in fighting a rear-guard action on Brexit. Senior Labour politicians need to emotionally and psychologically accept the reality of leaving the EU.”